On Politics: 29 days to go. Who’s winning the race for Congress?

Republicans have been full of doom in recent days.

View in browser|nytimes.com October 5, 2026 Good afternoon! We’re back with another check-in on the race for control of Congress. You’ll get one of these in your inbox every Monday between now and Election Day. — Jess Bidgood The New York Times by Lisa Lerer and Shane Goldmacher “It’s a five-alarm fire.” A “slow moving car crash.” Republicans are “hemorrhaging” and “should brace for losing everything.” Republicans have been full of doom in recent days, as they confront the reality that their political prospects do not seem to be improving. And their candidates are rapidly running out of time for a turnaround. With fewer than 30 days before the election, Democrats are reaching deeper into traditionally conservative areas while Republicans find themselves fighting to save their incumbents. Decisions last week by Republicans to pull money out of the North Carolina Senate race and divert resources to Kansas demonstrated the depth of their party’s challenge, as new New York Times/Siena University polls found strength for Democrats in five reliably Republican states that could determine control of the chamber. The first events in what President Trump has promised will be a series of midterm appearances — all in deep red states — underscored the anxiety among Republicans that even some of their most loyal voters could stay home from the polls in November. And a series of economic indicators released last week, showing job growth slowing, mortgage rates rising and unemployment climbing, only reinforced the difficulties of the national environment for Republicans. To be sure, a wave of red cash could save Republican seats. But it’s also clear that Democrats are playing hard on their turf. The battle for the Senate Data as of Sept. 25. The New York Times Republicans have made some significant moves on the Senate map. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main Republican Senate super PAC, pulled money from North Carolina, a sign that some top party strategists doubt that Michael Whatley can defeat Roy Cooper, the Democratic former governor, in the perennial battleground state. Even Trump, who tapped Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman, to run for the seat, said he was “worried about him” on Friday before leaving for his campaign swing. The group made its first investment in Kansas, where Senator Roger Marshall, a Republican seeking a second term, appears increasingly embattled. The more than $10 million in ad reservations comes as both sides increasingly view Kansas as a late-breaking battleground. Democrats are considering spending there to support Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor. In Texas, Republican spending smashed records as the party frantically tried to boost Ken Paxton, the scandal-tarred attorney general running for Senate. This week, Trump will host a rally in San Antonio — his second trip to Texas in two weeks, and an indication of the party’s worry about a seat it has held since 1961. The race for the House Data as of Sept. 25. The New York Times The House map keeps growing and growing for Democrats. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added eight districts to its list of seats to flip on Friday, pushing the total number of competitive districts for the party to 66. That’s nearly double the number the party ended the 2024 cycle with, the committee said. The committee expanded its electoral frontier deeper into Republican areas, adding races that included seats in rural Virginia, Oklahoma and a Houston-area district that was redrawn to favor Republicans. All eight seats were considered safely Republican at the start of the year. The expansion comes a week after The Cook Political Report shifted 15 races toward Democrats, creating three new “tossup” districts, in conservative swaths of North Carolina, Texas and Florida. You can find our tracker, which has details on all the close races for Congress, here. GET CAUGHT UP Dennis Hastert, the disgraced former speaker of the House who admitted to abusing teenage boys and was sent to prison for violating federal banking laws, has died at 84. The Supreme Court heard its first case of the new term today. It concerned whether state and local governments can try to hold oil companies responsible for damages caused by climate disasters like floods and fires. Follow our live coverage. Karoline Leavitt, who until August served as Trump’s press secretary and chief spokeswoman, is joining Fox News as an on-air contributor. INSIDE THE AIR WARS Sources: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (districts); Cook Political Report (race ratings). Jillian Vordick/The New York Times The campaign arm of House Democrats is planning to spend $13 million in the coming week in 35 House districts, according to an ad-buy plan shared with The New York Times. The spending includes some new districts, most notably Pennsylvania’s First Congressional District, a seat held by Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, one of the few Republicans seeking re-election in a seat that Trump lost in 2024. The other new districts are California’s 48th, Michigan’s Fourth and Seventh, and New York’s 19th. Of the races the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending in, most are on offense. The party is spending on 21 seats held by Republicans and 14 held by Democrats. ONE KEY METRIC 7.28 percent That is the average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage in the United States, according to the mortgage financing giant Freddie Mac. That’s the highest since November 2023. TOP TALKER Doug Mills/The New York Times Strategists on both sides of the aisle were buzzing after a report on Thursday that Paxton told a group of conservative donors and lobbyists that Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas had hurt him politically. “Do you feel like he’s a little bit of a drag?” Paxton is heard being asked in an audio recording obtained by The New York Times. Paxton responded: “So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.” What captivated Republicans about the report was simple: Paxton, a longtime Trump loyalist, said aloud what they were all whispering but didn’t dare say for fear of provoking the president. Paxton just had the misfortune of being caught on tape. ONE POLL NUMBER 84 percent That’s the percentage of independent voters who disapprove of Trump’s handling of gas prices, according to the NYT/Siena poll released on Saturday — a figure that has alarmed Republicans. ONE LAST THING Kenny Holston/The New York Times Vice President JD Vance and Senator Ted Cruz, two potential Republican presidential candidates, engaged in a bit of early 2028 sniping last week, trading barbs about their midterm campaign schedules. “It is really obvious to me that, at this very moment, Ted Cruz is running for president. At this moment, I’m not. I’m trying to help elect Republicans.” — Vance “In my experience, people engage in political bomb-throwing when they’re feeling insecure. So he’s welcome to make whatever comments he likes. I’m going to keep focusing on the midterms and helping us win on Election Day in the next 30 days.” — Cruz MORE POLITICS NEWS AND ANALYSIS Erin Schaff/The New York Times How the Midterms Could Complicate the Supreme Court’s New Term Even before the justices start their new term on Monday, the court has spent the summer resolving fast-moving requests on election-related disputes. By Ann E. Marimow and Abbie VanSickle Kenny Holston/The New York Times New Analysis At Trump’s Rallies, a Familiar Mix of Rituals and a Plea to ‘Please Pretend’ President Trump is doggedly lending his support to Republican candidates facing a rough midterm season. He is the same campaigner he has always been, but his crowds have changed. By Katie Rogers Finn Gomez/Getty Images; Killin for Colorado Family of Epstein Victim Appears in Ad Targeting Republican In a tough new ad for the Democrat running against Representative Jeff Crank, the brother and sister-in-law of Virginia Giuffre say the congressman refused to meet with them. By Lisa Lerer Kent Nishimura/Getty Images How Democrats Have Changed the Way They Talk About Trans Issues Democrats competing in historically conservative territory in the midterms are more aggressively responding to Republican attacks casting them as extreme. By Tim Balk Taylor Robinson contributed to this newsletter. Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. If you received this newsletter from someone else, subscribe here. Need help? 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