On Politics: The establishment polkas — for now

Three questions for Democrats after a messy primary.

View in browser|nytimes.com August 12, 2026 Good morning! The Democratic establishment is breathing a little easier after its stunning upset in Wisconsin last night, but the results laid bare deep divisions among Democrats. Here are three questions I’ve got now. David Crowley narrowly won the Democratic primary for governor of Wisconsin. Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times The establishment polkas — for now By Jess Bidgood Democrats in Wisconsin had a chaotic field in their race for governor, a breakaway favorite and, ultimately, an establishment standard-bearer who resurrected his candidacy less than a month before Election Day. Last night, just enough of the party’s voters fell in line to give David Crowley, the moderate Milwaukee County executive, a stunning and razor-thin victory over the democratic socialist Francesca Hong. For Democrats in Wisconsin who believe that Crowley has a better chance of beating the Republican nominee, Representative Tom Tiffany, in the fall, it was an enormous relief: Their old-school electability argument seemed to have won the day. “For now, we polka,” said Gov. Tony Evers, who threw his support behind Crowley in a last-minute gambit. “Tomorrow, we’re back at work to win.” But the agonizingly narrow margin — under 4,000 votes at last count — suggests that the big questions the Democratic Party has been wrestling with this summer are far from settled. Just months before the next presidential election starts to take shape, Democratic voters in two key battlegrounds, Wisconsin and Michigan, have shown themselves to be almost evenly split between progressives and the establishment. This is a party that has a lot to hash out between now and 2028. Here’s what I’m left wondering after last night. Can Crowley tap into Hong’s support? Hong, 37, crisscrossed Wisconsin and signed up thousands of volunteers while moderate Democrats struggled to coalesce around an alternative. Her final tally was just shy of Crowley’s — but she won more votes than any other Democratic candidate in a contested primary for governor in the state in decades. For all the establishment’s worries about her far-left positions and awkward interviews, Democrats in Wisconsin found plenty to like. Hong called for a moratorium on data centers, for one, and spoke openly about her own financial struggles in a way that resonated with voters in a stuttering economy. The question for Crowley and the Democratic establishment is whether they can bring her supporters on board — and thus carry the energy of liberal primary voters into November — particularly after the moderates’ last-minute, coordinated push to stop her. Will Crowley adopt some of her positions, or any parts of her message? It’s the mirror image of the problem faced by Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, the progressive who narrowly beat Representative Haley Stevens in Michigan last week. He is now working to expand his appeal among the Black, older and Jewish voters who supported her. Will blue-state Democrats keep following their hearts? It’s been more than two decades since a Republican won a Senate race in Minnesota, and Democrats there made it clear what they’ll do when they’re not worried about electability: Hand a big victory to a progressive. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan handily beat Representative Angie Craig, a centrist who helped her party win back the House in 2018. Flanagan campaigned on liberal priorities like universal health care and a higher federal minimum wage while criticizing Craig for her vote in early 2025 for a Trump-backed immigration measure, the Laken Riley Act. (Craig said she had come to regret that vote.) Craig and her allies outspent Flanagan and her camp by four to one on ads, as my colleague Theodore Schleifer pointed out yesterday; the congresswoman’s loss could be an ominous sign for moderate Democrats who want to compete in blue states in 2028 and beyond. Where does the generational battle go from here? Hong’s loss wasn’t the only striking defeat last night. Representative John Larson of Connecticut, a 78-year-old Democrat who was running for his 15th term, lost his primary to Luke Bronin, 47, the former mayor of Hartford. Bronin made a call for generational change central to his campaign, arguing that a Democratic establishment that failed to stop President Trump’s return needed to pass the torch. His victory could put new wind in the sails of the younger Democrats trying to unseat senior lawmakers in the summer’s remaining Democratic primaries. They include two in Massachusetts: Representative Seth Moulton, 47, who is challenging Senator Ed Markey, 80, and the lawyer Patrick Roath, 39, who is challenging Representative Stephen Lynch, 71, of South Boston. READ MORE ON THE RESULTS: Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times 8 Takeaways From Tuesday’s Primaries A moderate won the closely fought Democratic primary for governor in Wisconsin, the latest contest between the party’s progressive and moderate wings. By Patricia Mazzei and Tim Balk Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times A Stunning Loss in Wisconsin Shows the Limits of the Left Francesca Hong’s defeat in the Democratic primary for governor defied expectations and may have shown the democratic socialist wave cannot reach beyond urban centers. By Kellen Browning and Julie Bosman Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? 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